Last week was the first time this season where my locks didn’t go in my favor. You may point the finger, waggle it at me and say “Hey maaaaan, why do you call them a lock when you can’t even hit 2 out of 3″…Well good sir (or lady, or anything in between even!) to that I would say 1- I AM hitting 2 out of 3 on the SEASON, which I’ll have you know will make you a VERY wealthy person hitting at that rate AND, if you heeded my advice on the Wisconsin-Michigan OVER and HAMMERED it…then you still came out alright. 75% on these things so far, but with full on conference play starting things are going to get tougher.
I don’t really care.
I think the biggest loss as we go deeper into the season is that teams have trends now, as opposed to performances oddsmakers would consider anomoly’s early on. Remember when Tennessee lost to Georgia State, an upstart young football team in Atlanta? Where tuition is handled by some rando…
Never mind I’m digressing.
Well that same Tennessee team played BYU the next week, a BYU team who played a GOOD Utah team fairly competitively for a good portion of the game the same week Georgia State took down the Vols…and you know what? The oddsmakers saw that UT loss as an anomaly because they BYU came in as an underdog…to a team who lost to GEORGIA STATE the week before. Those are things you can take advantage of early in the season, can’t really do that anymore.
The best thing you can look for now, is what I like to consider as a team with TOO much hype. Now..you ARE looking for anomaly’s. A team that surprised people the week before with their play, but a game they played way to well. A game maybe they weren’t supposed to win, but they did and looked good doing it. EVEN better, is if a team like that plays a team coming off a loss…that you think is BETTER than what the loss may have shown.
Prime example of that, is LOCK #1.
LOCK #1: OKLAHOMA STATE -3 VS. KANSAS STATE:
I’m going to be honest with you, I took this when it was -5…and it was still my big bet of the week. I wouldn’t say HAMMER it like I did the Wiscy/UM total last week, but this should be the biggest amount of money put down on any line this week.
If you read my BIG 12 PREVIEW then you know that I was VERY low on Kansas State coming into the year. A not-very-good roster and a new coach wasn’t a recipe for success in my eyes so I ranked them 9th. I didn’t think they would get even close to bowl eligible. It looks like I may have been a taaaad wrong, after seeing them manhandle Mississippi State but I still honestly don’t see them being that good. Having them ranked this week is almost as egregious as having TCU and Arizona State ranked last week after beating two shitty Big-10 schools. Neither of those teams are very good, and I don’t think Kansas State is either. It appears however Kansas State MAY be on the level as TCU though in the Big-12…so maybe the 6th or 7th team in the conference. Not 9th. My apologies to the program.
That being said, they won’t even come close to this Oklahoma State team. Mike Gundy absolutely FEASTS on teams like this, especially with a Quarterback which it looks like he has found in Spencer Sanders. Kansas State’s strategy I suspect will be to punch the Cowboys in the mouth as quickly and as often as possible. The good news for the Cowboys on that front is their skill positions are pretty damn good. Chuba Hubbard is as nice a back you will find in the conference and if you recall, Tylan Wallace was my pick for the Biletnikoff in an incredible year for receivers. Punch ’em in the mouth all you want Chris Klieman, Gundy can scheme around it. And once Wallace gets free to roam in space? You don’t even come close to having the athletes to touch that man. Oklahoma State is one of the few remaining air it out and spread ’em out classic Big-12 offenses…You gotta be able to keep up with those type of teams on the scoreboard if you don’t have the personnel to stop them.
Kansas State has the ability to do neither.
Keeping a 3-legged codgey and mangey mule from getting out of the corral? Really not that hard. Keeping a roided out racehorse from running away? Pretty damn hard. One of those is Mississippi State’s offense…and one is Oklahoma States.
The loss to UT deflated OSU in oddsmakers eyes it seems, take advantage of it.
Oklahoma State BIG.
LOCK #2: UTAH VS. WASHINGTON STATE OVER 56.5
Don’t over think it. Yes, Utah has a very good defense which may have you worried about the Washington State offense. Buuuuut, they did just give up a 30 spot to a baby faced 4th string USC quarterback. On top of that, Utah’s offense may not be earth shattering but they’re still averaging over 30ppg. And need I remind you what happened to Washington State’s defense last week?
I don’t really much care for who they’re playing, a total in the 50’s involving a Mike Leach team is always great value.
On top of that, the game starts late as fuck…so betting this will give you a rooting interest to cap off what some are calling a less than stellar slate this week.
LOCK #3: WASHINGTON -9.5 VS. USC.
Washington FINALLY looked like the playoff dark horse I thought they were last week by throttling a good BYU team. Now, USC comes to town fresh off of a surprising win against Utah. USC shocked the world by beating a highly ranked Utah team with a 4th string QB, but I don’t see the fairy tale going much further than that. Washington’s defense should be locked in on Matt Fink after a week of film study. The RS Junior also comes into Seattle looking at his first ever start on the road….actually, first ever start in general. I don’t know if I would necessarily call Husky Stadium “Hostile” per se, but it’ll for damn sure be more hostile than a half fill Colloseum. I think Fink gets rattled, and I think Jacob Eason has firmly settled into his groove after going a combined 42/53 (79%) for 552 and 6 TD’s over the last two. That leads me to make this a LOCK.
Other Bets I love, but don’t lock:
Navy/Memphis: Under 54
tOSU/Nebraska: tOSU -17
Oregon St./Stanford: Under 58